According to the latest animal protein report from RaboResearch, global poultry meat trade is expected to remain strong amid a relatively tight global protein supply and growing consumption, but geopolitics is an unpredictable factor, as reflected in the quarterly poultry market outlook report for the second quarter of 2025, just published on Thursday, 27 March by Rabobank.
This global geopolitical uncertainty is partly offset by the stability of feed costs in many regions, which provides a solid foundation for the poultry industry.
Robust growth in poultry meat demand is forecast for 2025 (2.5–3%), following solid growth in 2024, driven by its affordability relative to other proteins. While Asian and EU markets are poised for accelerated growth, supply constraints (breeder flocks, viability) in the Americas are limiting overall potential.
Poultry meat remains an affordable protein option for price-conscious consumers
Improving economic conditions in many regions, combined with the continued high prices of other proteins, make poultry meat an attractive option for consumers worldwide. Global consumption growth is forecast to reach between 2.5% and 3% this year. This marks the second consecutive year of above-average market growth, which has led to significant improvements in margin performance across many regions. “Almost all regions are currently enjoying profitable market conditions, with the notable exception of China, which faces weaker economic conditions, declining consumer confidence, and an oversupplied domestic meat market following years of rapid expansion,” says Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at RaboResearch.
Avian influenza continues to spread worldwide
Dealing with avian influenza remains a significant challenge for the global poultry industry and one of its greatest operational concerns. In addition, breeder flock supply remains tight and hatching egg prices remain high, restricting growth. “Rising egg prices are now driving renewed interest in vaccination as a tool to combat avian influenza threats,” notes Mulder. “The poultry industry has debated vaccine use in recent years, and more countries are adopting vaccination as a tool to reduce the risk of avian influenza spread. In general, there is greater support among egg producers than among broiler producers. Concerns about trade impacts and mixed results in controlling disease spread have been key factors in several countries not adopting vaccination as a tool.”
Nevertheless, some countries have successfully introduced vaccines
For example, in France avian influenza caused widespread damage, particularly in the western regions of the country, which traditionally have a large number of duck and Label Rouge (free-range) production operations, but the first and second mass vaccination campaigns against highly pathogenic avian influenza are proving highly successful. Since adopting vaccination in October 2023, France has seen significantly fewer cases and domestic supply and poultry production in France has fully recovered. Similarly, several countries in Asia and Latin America, where there is generally no compensation for farmers affected by avian influenza and dependence on exports is low, have introduced avian influenza vaccines.
Geopolitics will be the most significant factor to watch in 2025
In addition to the ongoing risks of avian influenza, rising geopolitical tensions and competition pose the greatest challenges to global trade. Overall, global trade is expected to remain strong amid a relatively tight global protein supply and growing consumption. Although the first quarter is typically a slow season, it is expected to exceed year-on-year levels due to continued tight market conditions in key import markets such as the EU, the UK and the Middle East, as well as improving market conditions in Japan and South-East Asia. Strong import demand is expected to persist throughout the year, keeping breast meat prices elevated. However, weak Chinese demand and local oversupply may limit the upside.
However, rising geopolitical tensions, including US tariffs on imports and retaliatory tariffs on US poultry by affected regions, could lead to a trade war and shifts in global trade flows.
Brazil and Thailand are expected to benefit from these geopolitical tensions. “They are already gaining market share in markets such as China and Mexico, and this trend is likely to continue, especially if trade tensions escalate,” adds Mulder. Indirectly, geopolitical tensions could also trigger operational changes due to restrictions or shifts in the trade flows of inputs such as agricultural raw materials and feed additives. “Poultry companies must be prepared to respond quickly to developments,” Mulder warns.
About Rabobank
Rabobank Group is a global financial services leader offering wholesale and retail banking, leasing and real estate services in more than 38 countries worldwide. Founded more than a century ago, Rabobank is today one of the world’s largest banks with more than USD 660 billion in assets. In the Americas, Rabobank Wholesale Banking North America is a premier corporate and investment bank for the food, agribusiness, commodities and energy industries.
About RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness
RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness has 85 analysts working in local teams across Rabobank’s global network. They generate knowledge and develop views and perspectives on business, topics and developments in the food and agribusiness sectors worldwide. All analysts have their own sector specialisations, ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa.
Source:
Nan Dirk Mulder, RABOBANK
-. Press release: RABOBANK Report [27-Mar-2025]
For further reading:
-. 2025 map of broiler production: key trends