Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst at Rabobank and specialist in global protein markets, presented at the XVI European Poultry Conference, held in June 2024 in Valencia, a paper on the factors influencing the global poultry protein market.
In a global context of increasing food demand — projected at 30% more food by 2030, and 40% more animal protein — markets will have to face several geostrategic challenges. Following the pandemic, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tariffs and trade restrictions have been imposed and supply risks emerged for feed raw materials, energy and fertilisers.
As a result of the war in Gaza, attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have occurred, causing disruption to global maritime transport and driving up freight costs. This situation has prompted a growing trend towards self-sufficiency in animal protein production to safeguard countries’ food security, even as external demand for livestock feed raw materials remains.
Another notable aspect, following several years of development of new companies in the “cultured meat” sector, is its very low market share, at around 1%, although this could increase in the coming years.
Estimates indicate that over the 2023–2033 decade, demand for protein from pulses will see the largest increase (28%), followed by poultry meat and eggs, at 22% and 21% respectively. By region, emerging market economies will lead this demand, while in developed countries it will be considerably lower and driven by specific consumer requirements (including sustainability and animal welfare, among other factors).
In terms of production growth, poultry proteins — both meat and eggs — have also recorded the highest annual growth since 2018 to date, at 1.8%, and for 2024 growth is estimated at 1.6% for eggs and 1.8% for poultry meat.
The speaker outlined the key factors that could shape investment in the sector in the coming years, including the implementation of the EU’s Farm to Fork strategy, which remains to be seen whether it will be maintained under the new legislative term.