According to Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst at the multinational banking group Rabobank, an analysis of poultry product consumption in advanced economies suggests that it will continue to grow in line with long-term trends and improved affordability. In his view, the outlook for global poultry markets is optimistic, driven by accelerating consumption growth across many markets.
Global poultry markets are performing well, supported by lower production costs and a robust recovery in demand across most markets. After several years of slow growth, global poultry meat consumption is forecast to reach between 2.5% and 3% in 2024, representing a return to historical levels.
Growing demand and increased production as key strengths
The strong price position of poultry meat relative to other proteins in most markets, combined with robust retail demand, a recovery in foodservice demand, and growing sustainability strategies supporting consumption, are underpinning rapid growth in this sector.
Most poultry industries worldwide have remained relatively profitable, with prices rising in many cases. However, there are exceptions, most notably the two largest markets — China and Japan — which continue to suffer from local oversupply.
Rapid production growth, combined with more challenging local economic conditions and weaker consumer confidence, has led to a supply surplus, with relatively low prices and growing stocks. This has also weighed on imports, with large year-on-year declines in raw chicken imports to China and Japan in the first half of 2024.
Nevertheless, overall trade is expected to remain solid in the second half of 2024. Most international markets are strong and balanced, driving increased demand for chicken imports. Global trade is therefore expected to grow in line with rising worldwide poultry meat demand, albeit against a backdrop of ongoing volatility.
Weak Chinese demand will put pressure on chicken paw prices, but breast meat and processed chicken prices are expected to remain firm, in line with solid market conditions in key importing markets across Europe and Asia. Furthermore, consumption in advanced economies such as Europe, the United States, and Japan is expected to continue growing in line with long-term trends and improved affordability.
Demand for higher value-added products, such as processed chicken and other poultry meats, will recover further, returning to trend levels after a few sluggish years. However, risks persist. Tensions in the Middle East, and the consequent diversion of maritime trade via South Africa, continue to weigh on transport between Asia and Europe due to longer transit times and higher freight rates.
Health and geopolitical risks as the main threats
Animal diseases and geopolitical tensions will represent the main challenges for the global outlook. Both can abruptly disrupt global trade flows. Indeed, the outbreak of Newcastle disease on a farm in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, resulted in an export embargo to several destinations, as major importers such as Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa imposed state-level restrictions, while others adopted a regional approach. Although no new cases have been found, it has served as a wake-up call for Brazil and key importing countries.
Avian influenza remains a challenge for the poultry industry, though overall pressure is slightly lower compared to last year. In 2024, the EU recorded its lowest number of outbreaks since July 2019, and South Africa has remained free of outbreaks in commercial poultry, enabling broiler production to fully recover, although egg production continues to be severely affected.
In this regard, the United States has been one of the exceptions, with ongoing AI outbreaks during the summer months that have had a significant impact on the egg sector. As winter advances in the northern hemisphere, risks will once again increase.
In conclusion, the report notes that in an environment of continued high risks — including disease, feed price volatility, and geopolitical tensions — supply growth discipline is essential to maintain balanced market conditions. Otherwise, the current bullish market conditions could encourage producers to expand overly ambitiously, leading to oversupply similar to that seen in China and Japan.